Leveraging HIV advancement in the light of Tuberculosis and Malaria using System Dynamics

Henry Njogo Mwangi, Williams Ddembe, Timothy Waema, Ng’ang’a Zipporah


Chronic illnesses to which HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB is part, have had long term direct impact on the population, social economic status as well as health in general. A lot of commitment by governments, non-governmental organizations, international organizations etc. intended to reduce mortality of these disease. These intentions have not had proportionate return on investment.This paper explores factors that influence the progression of HIV into AIDS with particular emphasis on opportunistic infections particularly malaria and TB. Although there has been tools and techniques geared towards study of these diseases many of them have been lacking systemic approach or fail to communicate to healthcare providers therefore rendering their efforts ineffective.The authors argue that the range of infectiousness in the population specifically HIV/AIDS, incidence of new cases and its progression including interventions ideally reduce mortality rate leaving more people living with the disease and requiring more care in the course of the disease. Living with the disease while still on medication awakens latent infections which go on unnoticed but the patient continues with the medication allowing these new infection to gain undue advantage of the immune system. With models to leverage realistic predictions and awareness, simultaneously allowing care delivery can unveil hidden trends in the disease under consideration.The descriptive model allows systematic inquiry that yields explanations and provides healthcare providers with common decision making platform. The authors further suggest triumvirate model of HIV, malaria and TB that utilizes system dynamics in a resource limited setting.


System Dynamics; HIV; TB; Malaria

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